TIE #099: How I Measure Supply/Demand of Sealed Pokémon Booster Boxes for Investing
You need to understand this before making your first investment.
A few weeks ago, I published the first iteration of a monthly market performance update for sealed Pokémon cards from the Sword & Shield era forward:
The response was fantastic and prompted a few subscribers to ask the same question:
“How are you measuring supply vs. demand?”
In that latest update, I express the “value” of each sealed box but I do not measure supply vs. demand.
The reality is that supply and demand is technically represented by price.
However, we cannot rely on price alone because it does not tell you which part of the relationship is most impactful.
One box being more expensive than the other doesn’t tell you why it is more expensive.
Demand
Demand is the easy part of the equation to measure. It is as simple as looking at how much of a given item is selling and I do that by looking at two things:
Sold “Buy it Now” listings on eBay.com
Quantity sold on TCGplayer.com
I prefer TCGPlayer because you can just look at the monthly sold number but eBay comes in handy on sets with lower liquidity.
Here is a comparison for you:
Obsidian Flames Booster Boxes - Price: $370
There are roughly 60 of these selling every month on TCGPlayer.
Surging Sparks Booster Boxes - Price: $280
These are selling almost 6x as often right now, with over 400 sold in the last 30 days.
Surging Sparks Booster Boxes have WAY more demand right now.
That is blatantly obvious.
You can also use TCGPlayer to see the demand trend with their charts:
Obsidian Flames Booster Boxes - Price: $370
By looking at the blue bars (weekly) and the Y axis (total) on the right, you’ll see that demand was a little higher in 2025 (~3 boxes/day) but the average of roughly 2 boxes/day has remained constant for a while now with prices above $300.
Surging Sparks Booster Boxes - Price: $280
This chart shows a different story.
Some weeks didn’t surpass ~30 boxes sold, while others surpassed 100 boxes sold.
What this tells us is that Surging Sparks has always had more demand, this isn’t just a recent thing.
Supply
Supply cannot be directly measured.
However, you can make educated guesses based on demand and price.
In the above comparison, Surging Sparks Booster Boxes sell ~6x as often as Obsidian Flames Booster Boxes.
You might be thinking, “yeah, because they’re cheaper!”
If that was your initial thought, you’re thinking in the wrong order.
Surging Sparks Booster Boxes are only cheaper because there is more supply.
Price is a result, not a cause.
The Pokémon Company likely identified this early on and has allocated more resources to printing Surging Sparks.
Had they kept supply equal, Surging Sparks booster boxes would be sitting at a higher price vs. Obsidian Flames.
How much higher?
We cannot truly know.
As prices rise, demand falls. You cannot simply divide the demand and multiply price.
(In this case, that would be like saying Surging Sparks has 5x the demand so if supply was equal, Surging Sparks Booster Boxes would be $1,300 each)
My guess would be somewhere around $400-500 if supply were equal.
How to Use this Information
You want the following when investing in sealed Pokémon cards:
High demand
High individual card price vs. box price (value)
Low supply
In that order.
While you’ll never get all three in a picture perfect range, this is the general idea.
I believe Surging Sparks is a much better investment than Obsidian Flames because it has more demand and is better on value:
The cards inside the Surging Sparks Booster Boxes are worth over twice as much.
Obsidian Flames only comes out ahead in supply.
The supply is lower.
But here’s the thing about supply… it always decreases over time.
We are measuring sealed boxes, which are opened every single day by collectors.
As a result, one day, Surging Sparks Booster Boxes will be worth more than Obsidian Flames Booster Boxes.
I hope writeup this helps your understanding of this crazy market.
This post is not financial or investment advice.
I am simply informing you of what I have done with my own capital.
What you choose to do with your capital is at your own discretion.
While I will always vouch for the content I publish and the ideas I teach, there are limits to what I’m legally allowed to encourage without putting myself in harms way.
Great post
That's an interesting read. How long can you hold a Pokémon card for investing?