A Look Back at the Performance of my 2024 LEGO Investing Hit List
If I write about investing, I should probably be good at it right?
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We are 12 months removed from the last time you were able to buy sets from the official 2024 LEGO Investing Hit List.
That means it is the perfect opportunity to see how well the picks from that list performed vs. the average for each theme.
Not only are paid subscribers going to see this, but even free subscribers to the newsletter.
If I talk about something like LEGO investing as often as I do, I should be able to back it up with performance that beats the market right?
The data you see below is pulled from the same spreadsheet I use to create my monthly market update report, you can read the latest one here:
Allow me to present you with the official data so you can come to your own conclusion about my LEGO investing strategy:
Brickheadz
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 65.6%
Theme Average: 40.7%
We picked the good sets here for the most part.
City
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 40.7%
Theme Average: 54.7%
Unfortunately we were hampered by Amazon here. They stocked the 4x4 Off-Roader for most of 2025 which hurt its performance in Q4.
Creator
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 79.7%
Theme Average: 60.2%
Solidly above average here.
Disney
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 118.4%
Theme Average: 32.0%
We blew the average out of the water here by picking the needle out of the haystack.
DUPLO
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 100.5%
Theme Average: 61.4%
Same thing here.
We missed the Train set (and have since adjusted the set picking system) but we hit on the one set we did buy.
Harry Potter
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 111.8%
Theme Average: 57.7%
We nearly doubled the performance of the overall theme all while missing out on the best performing exclusive set (one of a couple different mistakes I made in 2024).
Ideas
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 64.1%
Theme Average: 33.0%
We dodged several bullets here. You love to see it.
Jurassic
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 154.5%
Theme Average: 77.8%
I predicted the resurgence of Jurassic and put my money where my mouth was by cherry picking the best performing set.
I bought a TON of them.
Mario
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: -21.4%
Theme Average: 11.8%
This is an odd outlier that still doesn’t make sense to me.
Clearly it was over-produced, but I don’t see how that results in negative ROI over a year post retirement.
Don’t worry, I won’t be touching Mario ever again.
Marvel
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 74.8%
Theme Average: 42.3%
Despite a lot of consistent results here, we were able to pick most of the best performing sets across the board here.
Paid subscribers will remember that I was terrified of buying this many Marvel sets because of how many 2023 retirees (that I didn’t buy) shit the bed, but it all worked out.
Minecraft
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 85.4%
Theme Average: 104.9%
One of the rare moments that I underperform the average ROI in one of the more popular themes.
This metric alone doesn’t tell the full story though and I want to take a moment to highlight something that is extremely important when it comes to LEGO investing.
Liquidity matters just as much as ROI when you’re operating with as much capital as I am (or even less).
Here is the peak number of units the four sets I picked sold during December on Amazon (using Keepa):
The Abandoned Mine - Between 2000 - 3000 units
The Skeleton Dungeon - Between 1000 - 2000 units
The Sword Outpost - Just above 3000 units
The Deep Dark Battle - Between 1000 - 2000 units
The set with the highest ROI?
The Panda Haven.
Want to know how many of those sold in December on Amazon?
Between 50-100 units.
You read that right.
The top performing set “on paper” sold magnitudes less volume than the sets I chose to invest in.
What if I had bought 300 of them?
It would have been extremely difficult to sell even a third of them last month and then probably another year minimum to sell the rest.
So with that in mind, did I really underperform the average?
Speed Champions
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 43.8%
Theme Average: 41.5%
Speed Champions had very consistent performance across the board with no real outliers.
Star Wars
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 35.6%
Theme Average: 30.2%
Star Wars also had extremely similar performance across the board except for a few underperforming outliers.
I was extremely vocal about the Millennium Falcon (which was actually buyable at $100 from Walmart during BF, me listing a $136 cost basis is being generous here).
That paid off heavily.
Technic
2024 Hit List ROI After Selling Fees: 24.6%
Theme Average: 35.4%
I would have outperformed the average here had I not missed out on the Walmart exclusive set (Bugatti) that made my hit list but got overlooked it when assembling it.
I made sure mistakes like that did not happen in 2025.
The Results
Out of 14 themes, I outperformed the average in 9 of them.
Not only did I outperform the average but I often blew it out of the water while owning sets that were the most liquid out of the entire theme.
When I did not outperform the average, it was almost always due to three reasons:
The sets I “missed” hardly had liquidity (Minecraft)
I flat out missed sets that my system did pick, I just overlooked them (fixed this in 2025)
Amazon stocked sets I invested in for way to long (this is part of the game and not an excuse)
Had I not made those mentioned mistakes of missing sets, my only true “bad” plays were Mario and City.
I don’t even count City because it will eventually pay off (it will just take longer than a year).
So there you have it.
We consistently outperformed the average and avoided a lot of bad sets that I saw countless YouTubers talk about from start to finish in 2024.
This is why I like to use a system that is based on data and trends, rather than buying based on vibes alone.
2026 should be an incredible year for LEGO investing and I look forward to doing this again next year for the sets we just bought over the past 8 weeks.
If you have a question, leave it below in the comments and I’ll respond ASAP.
This post is not financial or investment advice.
I am simply informing you of what I have done with my own capital.
What you choose to do with your capital is at your own discretion.
While I will always vouch for the content I publish and the ideas I teach, there are limits to what I’m legally allowed to encourage without putting myself in harms way.
strong transparency and discipline here. Benchmarking against theme averages and factoring in liquidity makes the performance analysis far more credible than headline ROI alone
This rocks